Forecasting Financial Data

Much of the activity in the Treasurer’s office revolves around, not only, the record keeping of all current financial activity, but taking into consideration past historical performance to aid in financial forecasting for the district. Depending on how far in the future the forecast is accounting for, historical trend data may help.

Keeping in mind forecasting is not 100% accurate, use of quantitative data helps in taking the next forecasting steps based on solid assumptions. The easiest forecasted data is based on stable historical data. Unfortunately, the data over recent years is anything but stable.

The illustration included here for your review tracks the most recent historical performance of Net Operating proceeds. This is the State-based revenue minus the State required deductions to the district revenue stream. As you can see, the trend from 2007 through 2012 is volatile. This information provides a clear illustration of the difficulty in projecting the amount of funding the district will have in subsequent years to operate the district. The current trend identified is a steady pattern of loss after the State Fiscal Stabilization Funding was lost.

As additional financial trend information is developed, the community will be informed through the District website and community meetings. Our next anticipated Community meeting will be held Monday, February 27, 2012 at 7 pm in the Little Theater of the Bucyrus Secondary Building. This meeting will address all current financial trends and small group discussions will be held to discuss financial issues facing Bucyrus City School District.